Ukraine Faces Significant Challengs with Military Shortage

Ukraine's new defense minister has disclosed a substantial challenge: approximately 2 million citizens are evading the draft, and an additional 200,000 troops are missing without official leave, known as AWOL.

New Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced this alarming situation in parliament, marking a rare reveal of the troop shortfall that Ukraine has been grappling with during the ongoing conflict.

Dire Needs for Troop Replenishment

Fedorov shared that around 2 million people are required by authorities due to draft evasion, while 200,000 soldiers have left their deployments without authorization.

The defense minister promised comprehensive reforms, planning to conduct an audit to eradicate longstanding issues in military training and leadership. He emphasized that modern technology requires a new organizational framework.

Under Ukrainian martial law, being AWOL longer than three days may lead to imprisonment between five and ten years. Desertion, a more severe offense showing intent to avoid service, can result in up to 12 years in prison.

Several soldiers have used AWOL as a method to switch units, bypassing the formal procedures they might have previously been denied. This results in complexity in interpreting Fedorov's numbers.

The Scale of the Challenge

The Ukrainian prosecutor's office reported opening over 235,000 AWOL cases and over 53,000 desertion cases since the conflict began up to September 2025.

For context, historical records show roughly 150,000 troops from the US and UK went AWOL or deserted across the entire European theater in World War II.

A Strenuous Fight for Manpower

Fedorov's address highlighted the critical shortage of manpower that Kyiv urgently requires to sustain its defense.

Facing Russia's comparatively larger war machine, Ukraine's pressing challenge lies in restocking its front-line fighters.

President Zelenskyy has declared the active-duty force to be around 880,000, though exact numbers are debated.

The lack of reinforcements has severely impacted both morale and military efforts. Units have reported long stints on the frontline without respite, which prevents soldiers from seeing families.

In Pokrovsk, for instance, Zelenskyy noted that soldiers were significantly outnumbered during an aggressive Russian push to seize this critical area.

Men between ages 25 to 60 are drafted, while those as young as 18 must enlist. Many have left Ukraine unlawfully, as men aged 23 to 60 are not permitted to exit the country.

Strategic Reforms and Resource Constraints

Fedorov intends to reevaluate the efficient usage of existing troops. One focus is ensuring sufficient staffing in drone brigades, which currently face shortages.

He noted that only the top 50 drone units out of 400 are responsible for 70% of enemy damage, suggesting enormous potential if underperforming units are improved.

Facing a budget $7 billion smaller in 2026 compared to 2025, the Ukrainian military must strategize carefully under constrained means.