Iran: Is This Time a Turning Point?

The country is engulfed in protests, with Trump issuing threats to its government. But is there real instability within the regime?

On Thursday evening, the Iranian government disrupted internet and international communication services as anti-government demonstrations erupted nationwide. Clips that reached social media platforms depicted sizable gatherings in various cities, with several government structures set ablaze.

These fresh protests seem to be a reaction to Reza Pahlavi's call, the exiled heir of the last Iranian shah, preceding the 1979 Islamic Revolution. However, protests have been rippling across Iran since late December, fueled by dissatisfaction with economic conditions. What commenced with store closures in Tehran’s bazaar quickly expanded to rural and urban locales. Human rights advocates report the deaths of over 40 individuals and thousands detained amid the unrest.

Last week, President Donald Trump raised the stakes by warning that the U.S. was prepared to act if the Iranian regime harmed protestors. This warning carries weight for Iranian leaders, especially after U.S. airstrikes on nuclear sites in June, not to overlook recent happenings in Venezuela. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei denounced protesters for causing chaos merely to appease foreign leaders like Trump.

The Iranian authorities have previously suppressed mass protests forcefully, such as the 'Green Movement' post the 2009 election and the 2022 protests after Mahsa Amini's death while in custody. Is there a basis to believe this situation is unprecedented?

For insights, Vox consulted Vali Nasr, a Middle East Studies authority at Johns Hopkins, who advises on Iran's internal and foreign policies. Born in Iran, Nasr's expertise includes advising the Obama administration and writing Iran's strategic narratives.

When observing the current Iranian turmoil compared to past unrest such as the Mahsa Amini protests, one notices key differences. Up until Thursday, the protests weren’t as expansive as during Amini's time. Yet, they substantially intensified, becoming widespread and violent, culminating in the destruction of governmental sites.

Significantly, these protests erupt amid an Iranian conflict. The current environment lacks the former regime confidence witnessed during the Amini case, where there was an unchecked application of force and oppression.

Furthermore, the Iran-Israel conflict in June severely impacted both the leadership and citizens, further deteriorating Iran's economy from June till December—marked by a 40% currency devaluation and surging inflation by 60%.

In the leadership's outlook, the conflict remains unresolved. Despite a tenuous truce brokered by Trump concluding the '12-day war,' there's anticipation of renewed hostilities, as Israel might not have fully realized its wartime objectives. Iran's reliance on proxies has waned, and its nuclear capabilities decimated.

Hence, as protests ignited, the regime's focus was not on domestic stability but rather on an impending Israeli-American military strike. The added pressure from Trump's threats that the U.S. might intervene if protesters are harmed complicates the regime's response strategy.

Strategically, the Iranian leadership faces a dilemma: refraining from repression may embolden protests, as participants believe in U.S. support. Conversely, a harsh crackdown could instigate U.S. military action under the guise of humanitarian grounds.

Trump appears to use the protests as leverage against Iran. While Israeli support renders the protests dubious, it mainly aims to signal Iran's vulnerability rather than a sincere push for Iranian democratic rights. The key query remains: what exactly are Trump's intentions regarding Iran, if not explicitly to endorse political transformation?

There’s widespread disenchantment with the Islamic Republic across Iran, encompassing diverse ideological and demographic groups. Increasingly, Iranians challenge governmental corruption, perceived economic mismanagement, and international isolation due to sanctions.

The Islamic Republic's allure has faded, especially after setbacks like Hezbollah's decline, Syria's tumble, and Iran-Israel confrontations. Domestically, economic hardship abounds due to 2018's intensified U.S. sanctions, deepening poverty and inflation while fortifying elite wealth.

In late December, business closure, particularly of import-dependent retailers like mobile phone vendors, triggered a pronounced public outcry against economic mismanagement, escalating into wider protests.

Reza Pahlavi emerges as a symbolic figurehead, riding on nostalgia for pre-revolution Iran, and acts as a beacon for those wishing to dismantle the Islamic Republic. However, he lacks substantial influence or organizational capacity within Iran to directly orchestrate change.

Rumors of system fracture persist. Even before the summer conflict, debates over Iran’s future and strategic course raged behind closed doors, exacerbated by Iran facing substantial strategic and economic impasses.

As Iran stands at a crossroads, these debates might lead to restructuring, albeit the Supreme Leader shows little inclination for radical reorientation. Yet, the dialogue within Iran’s political arenas suggests growing acknowledgment of the unfulfilled aspirations of the revolution.

Should the Supreme Leader pass, it could unlock significant opportunities for Iran to revisit its political trajectory. Nevertheless, during any potential leadership transition, intensified intra-factional challenges might inspire a broad reevaluation regarding Iran's governance.

Iran's current Supreme Leader resembles figures like Brezhnev, signaling systemic inertia amidst necessary changes. Similarly, upon his passing, dynamic shifts possibly await Iran, paralleling historical precedents in the Soviet Union and China.