Has ISIS Resurged?

Recent terrorist events in Australia and Syria cast a spotlight on the potential resurgence of ISIS.

In a shocking incident, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese referred to the Hanukkah attack at Bondi Beach in Sydney as being driven by Islamic State beliefs, though the reality might be more troubling.

The tragic attack, carried out by a father and his son, resulted in 15 deaths and 40 injuries. Before this, the duo had visited the Philippines, where they allegedly trained under a regionally active ISIS faction. These developments hint at a more direct involvement of ISIS in orchestrating or at least enabling the attack, according to counterterrorism expert Colin Clarke from the Soufan Group.

A New Wave of ISIS Activities?

This attack occurred just a day after an ISIS-linked gunman in Syria caused casualties, marking the first U.S. military losses there since the collapse of the al-Assad regime. The situation bore bleak similarities to previous 'green on blue' incidents, where allied forces turned against American troops during the Afghanistan conflict.

The synchronization of these high-profile attacks over a single weekend is causing concern among Western nations, which have lately been focusing less on jihadist threats, leading to a pressing inquiry: Is ISIS making a comeback?

ISIS: Resilience Despite Losses

A decade ago, ISIS was a formidable entity, commanding a territory comparable to Great Britain in size. The so-called caliphate has since been dismantled, and its forces have dwindled, now estimated at fewer than 3,000 fighters.

ISIS’s terrifying assaults and videos of executions once gripped the world, leading to major military movements in the Middle East. Presently, while jihadist activity from ISIS and other factions has been overshadowed by extremism from both the right and left in the U.S., Europe too has seen a decrease in such acts.

Yet, ISIS has never vanished entirely. The year saw a lethal car attack in New Orleans, attributed to ISIS influence, and severe incidents by ISIS-K in Russia and Iran, alongside a stopped plan targeting a high-profile concert in Austria.

Growing Footprint in Africa and Online

Internal violence largely persists within regions where ISIS affiliates operate. In Syria, attacks have risen post the Assad regime and fewer U.S. troops. The group is believed to be expanding swiftly in Africa, notably in the Sahel, Congo, and Somalia.

Knowledge about current ISIS leader, Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Quraishi, remains sparse, but he’s thought to be stationed in Somalia. Experts suggest a high level of organization and strategy persisting among the group's networks across continents.

ISIS continues to leverage social media for indoctrination and recruitment, capitalizing on global tensions such as the Israel-Palestinian conflict for propaganda, despite historical animosities with groups like Hamas.

Implications for Global Security

In Europe, numerous recent attacks have been attributed to individuals radicalized online, often youth guided by remote 'cyber-coaches', circumventing the need for physical training camps.

The Australian attack is significant due to the suspects' prior scrutiny over terrorism ties and their acquisition of arms, highlighting vulnerabilities in current security frameworks.

Revisiting Counterterrorism Strategies

Former President Donald Trump initially promised decisive action against ISIS, although his administration shifted focus afterward. Trump previously considered withdrawing U.S. troops from Syria, where they continue partnerships with Kurdish forces against ISIS.

ISIS might aim to hasten such withdrawals through attacks, though this could backfire and prompt stronger military responses, as indicated by Trump’s threat of stern retaliation.

Under President Biden, the U.S. has recalibrated its foreign policy towards confronting significant state actors like China and Russia, marking a potential diversion from extensive anti-terrorism operations.

The current National Security Strategy downplays ongoing counterterrorism, advising strategic focus away from less critical areas, despite major military activities targeting ISIS in places like Somalia over regions such as the Caribbean.

Yet, should attacks by ISIS against U.S. personnel or in Western cities grow in frequency, expect rapid shifts in these priorities.