Russia's Mega Missile: A Show of Power That Keeps Failing

Recently, Russia conducted a scheduled test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from an underground launch site in the southern plains, but the missile failed shortly after taking off, crashing a mere few thousand feet away.

The military has maintained a low profile regarding the failure, yet the incident was visible and audible from miles around Dombarovsky air base, situated near the Russian-Kazakhastan border in Orenburg Oblast.

A widely circulated video on social media displays the missile deviating almost immediately after launch, spinning out of control, losing altitude, and crashing near the launch zone. Observers noted it released a part, presumably part of a safety procedure for salvaging contents, as pointed out by Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research.

The crash resulted in a fiery explosion accompanied by a hazardous cloud composed of brownish-red toxic gas, indicating the use of hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide—typical fuel for Russia’s most advanced ICBMs. Satellite imagery from after the incident reveals a crater and burn marks near where the missile was launched.

The Culprit Possibly the RS-28 Sarmat

Experts suggest the test likely involved the RS-28 Sarmat missile, capable of hitting targets more than 11,000 miles away, making it the ICBM with the longest range globally.

As the new heavyweight in Russia's missile arsenal, the Sarmat is engineered to carry ten large nuclear payloads, or other configurations including defensive measures and hypersonic vehicles. Designed for complete nuclear engagement specifically with the US, the Sarmat possesses enough destructive power to match that description of a doomsday device.

It’s straightforward why Russian officials boast about the Sarmat's features. President Vladimir Putin has praised it as a “truly unique weapon” capable of changing the strategic calculus of those threatening Russia. Dmitry Rogozin, a former head of Russia’s space agency, labeled it a “superweapon” after a successful test in 2022.

Recurring Failures Overshadow the Potential

Despite initial success, the Sarmat program has faced persistent failures, highlighted by a disastrous explosion last year. Initially intended as a replacement for the outdated R-36M2 ICBMs, the Sarmat's production and successful deployment are now even more uncertain.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense has characterized the RS-28 Sarmat as a product of entirely Russian manufacturing, contrasting the older R-36M2 which was developed in Ukraine. Although video evidence of the latest test is inconclusive concerning the missile's model, experts strongly suspect the Sarmat since the launch site had recently undergone renovations, likely to accommodate new missile tests.

Renowned analyst Etienne Marcuz from France’s Foundation for Strategic Research emphasizes that postponing the Sarmat would significantly undermine Russia’s strategic deterrence posture, particularly as the older R-36M2 fleet ages and its maintenance remains questionable without Ukrainian support.

Pavel Podvig, a specialist on Russian nuclear capabilities, concurs, noting the imminent retirement of the R-36M2 renders any extensive testing of that model improbable. Hence, the Sarmat was left as the most plausible candidate for the recent failed trial.

Strategic Arsenal Clouds of Uncertainty

This failure raises significant doubts about Russia's nuclear readiness. If it were an older missile, the failure could indicate deterioration over time. More probably, as a Sarmat mishap, it marks yet another roadblock delaying the missile's launch preparations since 2018.

While Sarmat struggles, Russia’s military has diverted focus toward the ongoing conflict with Ukraine, consuming vast resources such as aircraft, artillery, and personnel. Throughout, President Putin has strategically highlighted Russia's nuclear arsenal to caution Western involvement.

Future Prospects Under a Cloud

Back at home, lighter nuclear-capable missiles remain in Russia’s arsenal, offering potential alternatives while the weighty Sarmat remains unreliable. The Yars ICBM, due for testing soon, will challenge the readiness of Russia’s current strategic defenses as they stand against potential threats.

In anticipation of further tests, the US military deployed specialized aircraft for surveillance, emphasizing the strategic balance's fragile nature in the region.

Though Putin anticipated combat trials for the Sarmat by year's end to position it on active duty shortly thereafter, the missile's present state leaves Russian leaders seeking alternatives to reliably deploy their nuclear deterrent.

Amidst this environment, speculation of program cancellation circulates, considering Russian advancements with portable and less cumbersome ballistic missiles.