A Startling Alert on Global Poverty Should Worry Us All

Humanity might be on the brink of losing a significant achievement.

As Thanksgiving rolls around, it's a period often devoted to reflecting on the positives in our lives. For many years, one of these positives has been the remarkable strides made in reducing severe poverty across the globe.

From 1990 to today, there's been a substantial drop in the number of individuals surviving on less than $3 daily, from 2.3 billion to approximately 800 million. This has occurred even as the global population nearly doubled. On average, around 115,000 people have risen out of this poverty each day over the past 35 years. Economic recessions, technological advancements, wars, climate changes, and even pandemics have not halted this incredible progress, which represents undeniably good news.

However, this trend might be reversing.

According to Max Roser, the mind behind Our World in Data, we're approaching a worrying turning point. Although he predicts a decrease of about 40 million in the impoverished population in the next five years, he warns that post-2030, the number of those in dire poverty might start to climb again.

Should these predictions hold, an extraordinary human achievement could be in jeopardy. This downturn isn't due to a failure of old methods but rather a testament to their initial success.

The Limits of Economic Growth

Economic expansion has been the catalyst for recent global improvements.

In the last few decades, especially in the 1990s and 2000s, countries such as China, India, Indonesia, and Bangladesh experienced accelerated economic growth. This growth lifted millions from poverty, as significant developments in income, infrastructure, education, and health took place in these regions where poverty was once widespread.

Now, though, the largest populations of people in extreme poverty reside in sub-Saharan Africa and unstable, conflict-ridden nations. These areas have faced stagnant or weak economic growth for years, making them the new centers of persistent poverty where progress is painstakingly slow.

Take Madagascar, for instance, which illustrates this economic stagnation. Despite the population multiplying sevenfold since the 1950s, its GDP per capita remains the same as it was decades ago.

When economic development falters amid population growth, the consequences are severe. More people are born into hardship, leaving poverty rates unchanged or even increased. As global population growth continues heavily in poverty-stricken areas, the challenge becomes greater.

Compounding this issue is conflict. The World Bank forecasts that by 2030, 60% of the poorest will live in conflict zones. Civil wars and natural disasters, such as droughts and floods, can reverse years of advancements overnight, plunging millions back into poverty.

Securing a Better Tomorrow

Roser points out that while these forecasts are not set in stone, real change requires altering growth dynamics—better governance, fewer wars, increased investments, affordable clean energy, and even enhanced migration opportunities could shift predictions positively.

Maintaining progress is daunting, yet not impossible. The miraculous developments of the last 35 years were due to deliberate decisions, investments, and reforms that enabled billions to improve their living standards.

The real test now is bringing this prosperity to those who have been left out. If successful, progress against extreme poverty need not halt. Failing this could mean that last Thanksgiving might have been our final chance to view global poverty statistics as a triumph.