9 Leading States with Economies Protected from Trade War Turmoil

As the trade conflict spearheaded by President Donald Trump progresses, there is heightened concern among consumers about increased goods prices and potential loss of employment. Companies, too, are facing anxiety due to escalating import costs and a declining foreign market for their products.

These conditions, experts suggest, might propel the United States toward an economic downturn. The repercussions of these conditions are most pronounced in regions heavily engaged in international trade, potentially posing a threat to real estate values in these areas.

However, some parts of the nation are relatively insulated from the adverse effects of tariffs.

The degree to which tariffs affect each state varies, influenced largely by the portion of the state's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that stems from exports, as per an evaluation by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

"States that are less dependent on trade generally boast economies that are diverse and service-oriented, thereby facilitating quicker job growth," remarked Nadia Evangelou, a senior economist at the NAR.

Evangelou further mentioned that these states have effectively attracted new residents through their burgeoning job markets, subsequently supporting consistent housing demand. This trend is projected to result in sustained construction activity and property value increases over time.

Evangelou classifies a state as reliant on trade if its exports constitute more than 7% of its total GDP. Some states, such as Louisiana, maintain a significant portion of their economy—over 25% of their GDP—tied to exports to countries including China and Mexico. Conversely, only 0.4% of Hawaii's GDP is attributed to foreign exports.

States with less reliance on exports are generally better insulated against global supply chain disruptions. These regions typically feature more dependable job markets due to economies that focus on sectors such as finance, tourism, and entertainment. This economic stability enhances housing demand in both metropolitan and suburban areas, noted Evangelou.

Even beyond times of economic turbulence, the disparity between states that are highly and minimally reliant on international trade is evident—historically, property values increase more rapidly in states with lesser global exposure. Over a span of three decades, property values in these low exposure states have surged by 291% on average, compared to a 237% increase in states with higher trade reliance, based on NAR findings.

For those considering relocating and purchasing a home this spring or contemplating how the trade conflict might impact their home's worth, examining the top 9 states least affected by the trade war, according to the NAR, could provide valuable insights. Notably, Washington, DC is also included in this assessment, despite not being a state.

Hawaii

Exports represent just 0.4% of Hawaii’s GDP, marking it as one of the most protected entities from international trade shifts.

Washington, DC

With exports accounting for 1.5% of its GDP, Washington, DC holds a strong position against trade-induced economic impacts.

Colorado

Colorado’s export contributions make up 1.9% of its GDP, positioning it as a relatively secure state from trade war repercussions.

South Dakota

In South Dakota, 2.8% of the state's GDP derives from exports, illustrating moderate insulation from international economic fluctuations.

Virginia

Virginia also places with a 2.8% export to GDP ratio, showing its resistance to trade-related market disturbances.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma’s economy sees 2.9% of its GDP from exports, allowing it a cushioned reactivity to tariff impacts.

Montana

Exports form 3.1% of Montana's GDP, situating it in a tempered position regarding global trade influences.

Maine

Maine shares the same 3.1% export share of GDP as Montana, providing similar protection levels from global trade disruptions.

Idaho

With 3.3% of its GDP linked to exports, Idaho remains a state less affected by changes in international trade agreements.

West Virginia

West Virginia matches Idaho with an export contribution of 3.3% of its GDP, highlighting its moderate vulnerability to global market variations.