States at Risk: How Trump's Trade War Could Impact Home Values

Economists concur that tariffs introduced by Trump are poised to heighten costs widely; however, the repercussions on local economies vary, influencing their real estate markets differently.

This variance is due to the fact that some U.S. regions are heavily dependent on industries that are more intertwined with global trade. As nations worldwide deploy counter-tariffs against the U.S., reducing international demand for U.S. goods, regions producing these goods face difficulties. States reliant on international trade witness dramatic shifts in their employment sectors compared to those focused on domestic industries, affecting property purchasing trends.

Nadia Evangelou, a senior economist with the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explained to Business Insider, "Trade dynamics are perceived primarily on a national scale, yet their impacts are distributed unevenly across states. By examining the intensity of trade reliance and activities state-by-state, we can discern how susceptible particular states are to global perturbations such as tariffs."

Consider Louisiana: Identified by the NAR as having the most trade dependency with exports making up 26.5% of its GDP. Evangelou classifies states with export-to-GDP ratios exceeding 7% as heavily dependent on trade.

Louisiana’s principal industries include energy and chemicals, and substantial exports are sent to China, Mexico, and the Netherlands, each surpassing $5 billion. Strained trade relations with China and Mexico could dampen the state's economic performance and labor market, potentially deterring potential homebuyers and impacting the financial circumstances of those considering purchasing homes there.

Curious if your state leans heavily on trade? Here are the ten states with the largest export proportions relative to their GDP, ranked from highest to lowest.

Leading States in Export Reliance

Louisiana

Export's share of GDP: 26.5%

Texas

Export's share of GDP: 16.8%

Kentucky

Export's share of GDP: 16.3%

Indiana

Export's share of GDP: 11.4%

South Carolina

Export's share of GDP: 10.9%

Oregon

Export's share of GDP: 10.3%

Michigan

Export's share of GDP: 8.7%

Mississippi

Export's share of GDP: 8.7%

New Mexico

Export's share of GDP: 8.5%

Alaska

Export's share of GDP: 8.5%