A Potential Second Trump Term: Risks of Renewed Family Separations

Large-scale deportations could lead to the separation of countless undocumented immigrants from their children who are U.S. citizens.

Donald Trump, the President-elect, has promised to kick off his second term by initiating a broad deportation campaign. This plan could severely impact millions living in 'mixed-status' families, where undocumented individuals and those with legal residency coexist.

Trump asserts he will use an 18th-century statute to facilitate these mass deportations, initially focusing on individuals labeled as gang members, drug traffickers, or cartel affiliates. JD Vance, the Vice President-elect, targets one million deportations. There has been no response from Trump's transition team when queried about possible exceptions for long-term U.S. residents with U.S. citizen family members.

Impact on Mixed-Status Families

An estimated 4.7 million families in the U.S. are mixed-status, as reported by the Center for Migration Studies in 2024. Around half a million individuals in these families had anticipated new deportation protections under a Biden initiative, which would allow undocumented spouses and stepchildren of U.S. citizens to secure legal status. However, a federal court recently blocked this program.

Should Trump's plans come to fruition, the deportation program could lead to families being forcibly separated, reminiscent of his previous administration's actions. Interestingly, Trump's former ICE director, Tom Homan, suggests families might be deported as a unit, though this could even involve U.S. citizens. Whether this would be voluntary remains unclear.

Implementing such a vast deportation scheme presents practical difficulties. Nonetheless, if executed, it could profoundly harm millions of American-born children from mixed-status families, impose financial burdens on their communities, and potentially weaken the national economy.

Psychological Impact of Family Separation

Research on Trump's past family separation policy offers insight into the possible repercussions of dismantling mixed-status families via mass deportations.

Trump's first term saw the 'zero tolerance policy' which targeted undocumented migrants at the southern border. While parents awaited deportation proceedings in detention centers, their children were placed in facilities managed by the Department of Health and Human Services, or sometimes released to relatives or foster care within the U.S.

Around 5,000 families were divided until a California court stopped the separations in June 2018, ordering reunifications. As of May 2024, about 1,400 families remained apart, despite continued efforts by the Biden administration to reunite them.

The detrimental effects of this policy were not unknown to Trump officials. Jonathan White, who led the program for unaccompanied immigrant children, warned Congress of the high potential for severe psychological harm to children.

A 2019 government report identified that immigrant children in custody often suffered immense trauma, particularly those suddenly separated from parents. A 2021 pediatrician study deemed family separation as meeting criteria for inhumane treatment or torture.

Vox documented that trauma in children manifested through fragile social bonds, heightened emotional sensitivity, and in some cases, PTSD. These issues could either be short-lived or have lingering effects, impacting education and future job performance.

While the experience of family separation due to mass deportations could differ from border separations, the psychological impact on affected children depends significantly on their personal circumstances. Nonetheless, mass deportation would likely result in a far greater level of family separations than during Trump's initial term.

Matthew Lisiecki, from the Center for Migration Studies, noted that this situation could divide families on an unprecedented scale, affecting 5.5 million American-born children.

Lisiecki and Gerard Apruzzese estimate that a third of these children, including 1.8 million living with undocumented parents, might stay in the United States even if their family members are deported.

This scenario would mean not only psychological distress but also significant financial toll: children's median household income might drop dramatically if undocumented family members are deported. The resulting needs might cost $116.5 billion, coupled with loss of economic contributions from these departed individuals, impacting the economy.

Lisiecki emphasized that the trauma experienced by these children will shape their lives perpetually. There is no precedent for such a large-scale occurrence, leaving the long-term impacts unknown.

Feasibility of Trump's Deportation Plan

Whether Trump can actualize his mass deportation promise is uncertain. While he claims the program would operate without a financial limit, Congressional approval would be necessary to secure adequate funding. The political landscape remains uncertain, casting doubt on his ability to advance such measures.