Over 60% of CEOs Anticipate Imminent Recession Amid Tariff Concerns, According to Survey

A significant portion of top executives in the U.S. now predicts an economic downturn soon, based on findings shared on Monday.

From a group of more than 300 CEOs surveyed in April, 62% anticipate a recession or downturn in the coming six months, according to data from Chief Executive, an organization conducting the survey. This number reflects an increase from 48% in March.

Upsurge in Economic Concerns Among Corporate Leaders

The results emphasize increasing apprehension within U.S. corporations regarding economic prospects. Uncertainty has intensified recently due to fluctuating tariff policies by President Donald Trump, affecting both markets and consumer confidence.

Approximately 75% of those surveyed expect tariffs to adversely impact their businesses by 2025. About two-thirds do not endorse Trump's proposed tariffs, many of which are currently suspended.

An ongoing survey since 2002 provides several data points demonstrating the growing unease among leading business minds about the economy.

An index evaluating CEOs' sentiments on existing business conditions fell by 9% in April, continuing its downward trend following a 20% drop the previous month. This index now stands at its lowest since the early pandemic era in 2020.

Executives' expectations for business conditions a year ahead remain steady from March. However, these are still at the lowest levels observed since late 2012, having plummeted approximately 29% from the end of 2024.

The survey further reveals that over 80% of CEOs foresee a significant rise in costs this year, largely due to ongoing trade discussions between the U.S. administration and international partners. Half predict their expenses will increase by double digits.

Moreover, only 37% of CEOs think their firms' profits will grow, a sharp decline from the 76% who believed so at the beginning of the year.

However, there are glimpses of hope in the data. A marginally higher number of executives—just over half—anticipate improved economic conditions in the coming year, up from 39% in the previous month.

Some CEOs might experience some tariff relief. Late Friday, Trump declared that smartphones and PCs would be temporarily exempt from additional duties, a statement later confirmed by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

Economists and CEOs Voice Concerns

The latest data comes at a time when U.S. business leaders increasingly sound alarms over the nation’s economic outlook.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of a major firm, mentioned last Friday that earnings predictions are in flux due to the unclear tariff situation. Meanwhile, CEO Larry Fink cautioned that the U.S. might already be experiencing negative growth.

During an interview on CNBC, Fink stated, "We might be on the brink of, if not already in, a recession."