Is Trump's Unpredictable Stance on Ukraine Creating Worry for Taiwan Amid China's Claims?

During the opening of China's grand National People's Congress, which sets the legislative year's agenda, Beijing revealed plans to boost its military budget by almost $250 billion, marking a more than 7% increase. This move is part of China's ongoing effort to advance its military capabilities and assert territorial claims over contested islands in the South China Sea, as well as its claim over Taiwan, a democratically governed island that China views as a breakaway province.

For years, President Xi Jinping has been unwavering in his commitment to bring Taiwan under Beijing's control, using force if necessary. Taiwan, however, has relied heavily on the United States for support, as U.S. domestic law mandates assistance to ensure Taiwan's self-defense against any hostile forces.

U.S. military forces frequently traverse the South China Sea by air and sea to assert international navigation rights. These operations have, on occasion, led to tensions in the region.

In recent days, the Taiwanese government and its citizens have been closely monitoring President Trump’s aggressive dealings with Ukraine and his public dispute with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, feeling a sense of unease.

"The overall situation is deeply unsettling for people in Taiwan," expressed Russell Hsiao, Executive Director of the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington, D.C. to CBS News. "The U.S.'s apparent policy shift concerning Ukraine raises questions in Taiwan about whether the U.S. might withdraw its support in a confrontation with China, potentially leaving Taiwan vulnerable."

Taiwan's Long-Standing Ties with the U.S. and Trump

Since 1950, following the retreat of Nationalists to Taiwan after the civil war in China, the U.S. has sold over $50 billion in arms to Taiwan, equipping the island with rocket systems, advanced jets, and tanks.

Taiwan has allocated roughly 2.5% of its 2025 budget, about $20 billion, for defense spending. Nonetheless, the Trump administration is pushing Taiwan to increase its defense expenditure, similar to pressure tactics used on NATO allies.

Trump's pick for the Department of Defense’s policy, Elbridge Colby, suggested that Taiwan should significantly raise its defense budget, ideally to 10% or a comparable number, to adequately focus on national defense.

In response, Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te proposed increasing defense spending to above 3%, contingent on approval from Taiwan's Legislative Yuan.

While President Lai has not spoken to Trump directly since Trump's re-election, he sent his congratulations through Robert O'Brien, Trump's former national security advisor.

This indirect communication marks a departure from past interactions, such as Trump’s unprecedented call with Lai’s predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, which upset Beijing.

Does Taiwan Hold a Better Hand?

Despite concerns about less communication, Russell Hsiao suggests Taiwan may have an advantageous position in its relationship with the U.S., drawing on Trump’s own rhetoric of geopolitics as a strategic game.

Hsiao emphasized that Taiwan holds strong trading ties, solid security cooperation, and a critical tech industry, elements that can strengthen its dealings with the U.S., illustrating that Taiwan may possess better negotiating power compared to Ukraine.

Taiwan is an essential trade partner for the U.S., ranking seventh in 2024, with almost $160 billion in trade.

Recently, Taiwan's semiconductor giant TSMC agreed to expand its production facilities in Arizona, anticipating the creation of thousands of high-paying jobs, an effort lauded by Trump as crucial for U.S. technological advancement and job growth.

Trump assured that TSMC would be exempt from a 25% tariff, a move likely welcomed by Taiwanese leadership mindful of China's looming presence just 100 miles away.

"For Taiwan, it's vital to remain composed while engaging with the Trump administration," Hsiao remarked, underscoring the importance of maintaining a strong U.S.-Taiwan relationship.