Mexico's Battle with Crime: Analyzing the Data amid U.S. Pressure

President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico has made a significant announcement regarding the country's homicide statistics, claiming a notable decrease of 40% in daily killings since her administration began. This statement is partly an effort to signal to the Trump administration that the nation is making strides against organized crime.

On the other hand, security analysts caution that such figures do not adequately reflect the entirety of Mexico's violence situation. Other concerning issues, such as rising incidents of kidnappings and disappearances, indicate a more complicated reality.

During a routine press briefing, Sheinbaum shared that November 2024, the month preceding her presidential term, witnessed an average of 87 murders daily. Fast forward to December 2025, the number stands at 52. The president proudly notes that homicide rates have not been this low in ten years.

Statistically, the homicide rate in Mexico was 17.5 per 100,000 individuals in 2025. This shows a decline from 29.1 per 100,000 in 2018 and 25.4 per 100,000 in 2024. Comparatively, the United States recorded a murder rate of four per 100,000 people last year, according to initial reports.

Sheinbaum attributes this decline to a revamped law enforcement strategy focusing on intelligence and better collaboration among security agencies. She views increases in arrests and drug confiscations as proof of her administration's dedication to opposing the criminal networks governing Mexico's illegal drug trade and other sectors like agriculture.

Despite Sheinbaum's strong stance against foreign intervention, surveys show that many Mexicans, craving security, are now open to limited United States military assistance to combat cartel activities. President Trump has expressed his willingness to deploy U.S. forces to dismantle these criminal organizations.

Sheinbaum has attempted for months to deflect President Trump's assertions that Mexico is under cartel control and that her administration has fallen short in addressing this dominance.

A Closer Look at the Figures

Concerns about potential U.S. military operations in Mexico have intensified since U.S. forces recently apprehended Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, on charges related to drug trafficking.

While Sheinbaum's followers welcome the recent data, specialists in security caution against over-relying on homicide rates as the sole measure of violence. Armando Vargas from Mexico Evalúa highlights a rise in forced disappearances and gender-based killings, emphasizing that the sense of insecurity among citizens has increased. He urges the government to consider a broader range of violent crimes for a clear depiction of the country's safety.

Moreover, Sheinbaum has criticized Trump’s aggressive policies in Latin America, labeling them a threat to the region's stability.

Concerning drug smuggling dynamics, recent years have seen a reduction in fentanyl confiscations at the border, yet cocaine seizures have grown. Violent disputes within cartels continue, especially in northern regions like Sinaloa and the western state of Michoacán, driven by battles over drug routes and lucrative control of avocado and lime industries.

In response to public outcry against rampant violence, including the assassination of a mayor in Michoacán pressing for more robust anti-crime measures, Sheinbaum has mobilized troops and launched new initiatives to combat regional violence.