Iran's Growing Tensions Amid US Actions on Venezuela

The dramatic capture of Nicolás Maduro, depicted as a Hollywood-style mission by President Trump, has sent shockwaves across nations, from Colombia to China and France, leading to widespread denunciation.

Iran, however, is on edge more than most. Its leadership is already dealing with renewed anti-government rallies and is now threatened by a US administration unafraid to disrupt global norms.

Recent remarks by Trump have heightened Iranian concerns. Just before the Venezuelan operation, he cautioned Tehran against violently suppressing peaceful demonstrations, suggesting severe consequences.

He reiterated this stance aboard Air Force One, emphasizing potential severe repercussions if Iranian officials harm protesters. Meanwhile, other US figures linked Maduro's ousting to possible future actions against Iran.

Opinions globally ranged from approval to condemnation, with many questioning which nation might be the US's next focus. Senator Lindsey Graham, a staunch Trump ally, highlighted Iran as a primary adversary, warning its leadership to heed US declarations.

Currently, protests are sweeping almost all of Iran's provinces, rooted in economic turmoil. As at least 36 individuals, including minors and security members, have perished, the government grapples with a new dynamic. Unlike before, a seemingly supportive US puts additional pressure on Tehran.

Ellie Geranmayeh from the European Council on Foreign Relations observed a shift in perception: no longer does the regime dismiss US threats. Lessons from past conflicts and the Venezuelan precedent shift this situation into unpredictable territory.

Signs indicate Iran is taking the US statements seriously. Iran’s army chief underscored military readiness and warned against escalating rhetoric, suggesting any perceived threat would provoke a decisive response.

At home, Iran's government has adopted a more moderate tone toward protests. Ayatollah Khamenei recognized some grievances as legitimate, yet criticized external interference. The regime hesitates to deploy extensive force, potentially fearing US retaliation.

The ongoing economic crisis fuels public discontent, challenging the Iranian theocracy while complicating the regime's typical crackdown strategies. Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group argues Iran's leaders are uncertain about foreign intervention possibilities.

Despite confidence in the regime’s internal solidity, external factors present significant hurdles. Trump's previous successes increase the temptation for further international interventions deemed low-cost and advantageous.

Concurrently, Iran sees its defensive alliances weakening, compounded by Israeli and US actions undermining its military and nuclear capacities. Economic mismanagement and sanctions exacerbate resource shortages, intensifying Tehran’s isolation, especially after losing Venezuela as a crucial ally.

Nevertheless, experts believe direct strikes, even against top figures like Khamenei, wouldn't result in regime change. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps remains formidable, ensuring the regime's continued resilience against opposition forces.

Iranian leaders remain firm against negotiating with the US, seeing past talks as merely a cover for US aggressive strategies. Khamenei states the regime won't capitulate under pressure.

While a preemptive move by Iran might temporarily unify internal support, it risks inviting unwanted military confrontation, an unwise gamble according to analysts like Geranmayeh, given the high stakes involved.