From Maritime Attacks to Political Upheaval in Venezuela

The United States has initiated a military offensive against Venezuela. How did this situation develop?

On Saturday, President Donald Trump announced the US's intention to take control of Venezuela following the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro after US military strikes on Caracas. This marks a significant escalation in Trump's long-standing campaign against Venezuela, leading the US into complex legal, political, and military challenges. Here is the current status of the situation.

American forces launched comprehensive attacks on several targets in Caracas, capturing both Maduro and his spouse, Cilia Flores. According to Trump via social media, the couple has been transported out of Venezuela and is en route to the US for legal prosecution. While details remain fuzzy, Trump mentioned potential US troop casualties during the operation.

Since March 2020, Maduro has faced charges in the US for narco-terrorism, drug smuggling, and corruption, along with 14 accomplices. Recently, the Justice Department unveiled a new indictment against him, including charges against Flores and more Maduro family members. FBI officials and US special forces collaborated in this arrest, described by Gen. Dan Caine, the Joint Chiefs chairman, as an 'unprecedented mission' executed in coordination with intelligence and law enforcement allies.

The US, under Trump's administration, labeled Maduro as the leader of a cartel identified as Cartel de los Soles, classified as a Foreign Terrorist Organization as of November. This classification has been contested, as 'Cartel de los Soles' broadly denotes criminality among Venezuelan state officials rather than a singular organized entity.

The current events are the peak of US military initiatives initiated with strikes on suspected drug vessels in September. These operations targeted alleged narcotics traffickers in the Caribbean and Pacific regions, reportedly killing over a hundred individuals and involving the Venezuelan group, Tren de Aragua.

Simultaneously, the US escalated its military presence in the Caribbean, far exceeding what's necessary for anti-drug operations, by deploying the USS Gerald Ford carrier, B-52 bombers, and specialized helicopters for ground missions. The CIA received authorization to conduct clandestine operations in Venezuela, further escalating endeavors by seizing an oil tanker offshore in December.

Trump's dealings with Venezuela go back to early 2025, when he used the Alien Enemies Act against Tren de Aragua, imposed threats of tariffs on countries trading oil with Venezuela, and revoked, then reinstated, an oil export permit for Chevron's operations in the country.

Trump previously hinted at military involvement, dating back to a 2017 response to government crackdown on protests in Venezuela, stating the US had multiple options, including military force. He had also inquired about potential invasion strategies. These initiatives set the foundation for Trump’s first-term policies towards Venezuela, notably the failed US-backed recognition of opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's leader.

Now, Trump has acted on his earlier military threats, proceeding with tangible military actions after years of tension.

A Regime-Change Operation?

While the situation is fluid, it increasingly resembles a move towards regime change.

Despite Maduro's removal, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez and the broader administration remain. Trump clarified in a press briefing that the US aims to 'manage the nation until a secure, appropriate transition can be established,' likely towards a government more aligned with US interests.

Additionally, Trump referenced US stakes in Venezuelan oil as a factor and warned of potential further US interventions: "We plan to manage the country until a smooth transition occurs. Given the dilapidated state of Venezuela's oil industry, large US companies are set to invest billions, repairing its infrastructure and generating revenue. A much broader military action is ready to deploy if necessary."

Venezuelan opposition figure and Nobel Peace Prize recipient María Corina Machado echoed this sentiment, declaring that 'freedom's hour has arrived' in a recent announcement.

However, prospects for this operation remain vague. US records of regime change, especially in Latin America and the Middle East, reveal substantial challenges. Despite Machado’s opposition to Maduro, no evident interim government appears ready to step up. Trump acknowledged challenges for Machado becoming a leader due to her insufficient support and respect across the nation.

Moreover, the Trump administration's actual follow-through remains uncertain. As of the latest update, no extended American occupation of Venezuelan territory has materialized, although the military beef-up in the Caribbean persists.