Entering a New Nuclear Era

The global nuclear framework is crumbling as Donald Trump prepares to regain control over nuclear launch codes.

In Prague, more than 15 years back, then-President Barack Obama committed to nuclear disarmament, hoping to steer the US away from the Cold War mentality that centered nuclear weapons in national security.

Despite the bold vision that contributed to his Nobel Peace Prize, Obama's approach was timid without clear steps. At the time, even some traditional Cold War advocates began seeing nuclear arms as outdated, in an era more focused on preventing terrorist access to nuclear devices than state use. The US was negotiating New START with Russia, aiming for reduced arsenals.

Looking back, this moment seems less groundbreaking and more a farewell to fleeting optimism. Recently, UK armed forces leader Admiral Tony Radakin declared we are now in a "third nuclear age": the Cold War as the first, followed by a phase of disarmament. Now, prior security frameworks have vanished, marking today’s landscape.

The Current Nuclear Landscape

The US and Russia continue to invest heavily in new nuclear technologies while China is expanding its arsenal rapidly. Russia uses nuclear threats in its Ukraine war strategy. North Korea develops its nuclear stockpile, and Iran edges closer to nuclear capability. US allies are re-evaluating their need for nuclear deterrents amidst doubts about US protection.

Existing arms control agreements that curbed nuclear spread are deteriorating with no replacements in sight. Once these expire, we could see a renewed arms race, now with three major actors rather than two, a dynamic more erratic than before.

Trump's return adds unpredictability to nuclear decision-making, due to his unprecedented approach to diplomacy and calls for constraints on presidential nuclear authority.

Heightened Threats in a Nuclear World

The world's dangers have increased: Russia's invasion of Ukraine underscores nuclear manipulations to deter international military support for Ukraine. Russia's warnings and use of hypersonic missiles are attempts to leverage nuclear capabilities without actual usage.

The impact of these threats remains debated. US reluctance to intervene directly—a nod to nuclear risks—has been coupled with growing military aid to Ukraine, signaling diminishing fear of Putin’s threats.

Close nuclear calls during the conflict reaffirm fears about nuclear deployment risks, underscored by delicate diplomatic engagements that have so far skipped disaster.

Analysts suggest Russia's nuclear strategy has largely gone unchecked by the global community, prompting observation from other nations.

China's Expanding Nuclear Arsenal

Historically, arms control centered on the US and Russia but is shifting as China's nuclear arsenal grows, posing more complex strategic challenges. China's arsenal expansion stands less for military might than as a political assertion of significance, especially towards the US.

As China accelerates its nuclear development, international arms negotiations become more arduous, complicating agreements traditionally facilitated by a two-player dynamic.

In response, the US faces pressure to scale its arsenal to check both Russia and China, a discussion that stirs varying opinions within its military strategy circles.

The triangular US-Russia-China diplomacy introduces further complications, emphasizing China’s avoidance of agreements that it sees as limiting its strategic growth.

Nuclear Agreements at Risk

During Trump’s office tenure, major nuclear agreements collapsed. He withdrew from accords like the Iran nuclear deal and restrictions on missile systems, citing various violations. The last remaining treaty, New START, hangs by a thread, barely operational.

Ambitious modernization programs continue under the US, aimed at renewing its nuclear forces. Yet debates persist on whether increasing numbers of weapons are needed to meet multiple threats.

Looking ahead, the expiration of New START in 2026 looms, pushing discussions on necessary expansions to the US arsenal amid persistent global tensions.

Nuclear Proliferation Concerns

Since WWII, nuclear acquisitions by states have been surprisingly limited, in part due to treaties like the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty. But this status quo faces challenges as countries reassess nuclear capabilities under new threats.

The relevance of defense assurances from powers like the US is under scrutiny. Ukraine’s disarmament in exchange for security assurances is now seen by many as a strategic error.

Discussions in countries like Germany, Poland, South Korea, and Japan revisit nuclear positions, prompted by regional threats and questions surrounding US defense commitments, including Trump's influence.

Potential for Change

Despite recent setbacks in nuclear diplomacy, informal agreements offer glimmers of hope, such as mutual understandings on human control over nuclear decisions.

Innovative diplomatic efforts might eventually lead to renewed negotiations, particularly between the US and Russia, if a peace deal in Ukraine emerges.

Yet, nuclear arsenals grow more integral to international relations and the threat of catastrophe looms larger, prompting a renewed focus on nuclear risk awareness and the forgotten lessons of the first nuclear era.