Review of 2025 Predictions: Successes and Misses

Each new year, the Future Perfect team boldly projects events they foresee unfolding over the next 12 months. By the year's end, they revisit these forecasts to evaluate their accuracy.

All predictions were made with an optimistic outlook, projecting events they expected to occur, paired with likelihood percentages to reflect their confidence levels. If a prediction had over a 50% chance of happening and did, or under 50% and didn’t, it counted as a 'correct call.' Conversely, predictions were deemed 'incorrect calls' if they did not follow this pattern.

Some forecasts could not be confirmed due to complications, such as delays in governmental reports, leading to them being labeled as 'undecided.'

In total, 19 predictions were correct, 4 were incorrect, and 2 were undecided, yielding an impressive accuracy rate of 80 percent—outshining even the record set by the 1906 Chicago Cubs. The focus remains on improving forecast accuracy by analyzing both successful and failed predictions, as the team prepares to release their 2026 predictions.

United States

A significant part of 2025's economic topics was dominated by tariff news mainly driven by the Trump administration's executive actions on tariffs, sparking debates over their legality.

Many speculated that new tariffs might be included in the Republicans' tax bill, but Trump’s ability to impose tariffs independently made this unnecessary, confirming predictions.

Despite issuing an executive order to scale back the Department of Education, Trump's administration did not formally dismantle the department, as only Congress has that power.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act imposed cuts affecting Medicaid and segments of the Affordable Care Act but did not fully repeal the ACA, which remains intact despite extensive legislative adjustments.

International Affairs

In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu managed to retain his position amid widespread political challenges, aided by Trump's return to power in the U.S., allowing Netanyahu to maintain significant political maneuvers.

In Ukraine, the anticipated ceasefire did not materialize; the conflict persists, showcasing the grim realities of ongoing war and complex diplomatic stalemates.

Science and Technology

The predicted AGI breakthrough did not occur, though AI developments continue to progress, with companies setting goals for future achievements.

In the automotive market, electric vehicles reached a significant milestone in U.S. sales by Q3, though future growth faces potential threats from policy changes.

Closing Remarks

Looking forward, predictions and policymaking will continue to evolve as teams focus on refining their forecasting methodologies with the hope of further improving accuracy and addressing new global challenges in 2026.