The Growing Political Might of Older Voters and Its Impact on the Young

The graying of America is a pressing reality.

Between 1960 and 2024, the proportion of Americans aged over 65 doubled from 9% to 18%. Projections by the Census Bureau indicate that within the next ten years, this age group will surpass the number of children for the first time in history. By 2060, seniors are expected to make up about one-fourth of the population.

This demographic shift is poised to be a significant hallmark of the 21st century, influencing almost every facet of American life, especially its politics. In the 2024 elections, 65+ voters comprised 29% of the US electorate.

Elderly Americans have always wielded notable political influence due to their consistent voting patterns. In the past, their limited numbers curtailed their power, but this limitation is progressively diminishing.

This shift potentially poses challenges for the younger generation. American public policy has historically not favored younger demographics. Internationally speaking, the US welfare system provides minimal support to families with kids, while retirees enjoy substantial benefits.

Growing federal budget allocations toward retiree programs may place financial burdens on younger Americans through increased taxes or borrowing, diminishing the potential for spending on their needs. Housing policies also tend to favor older homeowners at the expense of renters.

The escalating electoral power of seniors might amplify these inequalities, a trend already observable. As voters age, economic policies have increasingly disadvantaged the younger demographic.

This shift towards a government led by and for the older population not only jeopardizes the millennial and zoomer generations but also threatens the country's prosperity.

State Policies Favor Older Citizens at Younger Generations’ Expense

Recently, state governments nationwide have been adjusting tax burdens, favoring older citizens over younger ones.

Since 2022, states like Texas, Colorado, Iowa, and Pennsylvania have specifically cut property taxes for homeowners aged 65 or over. Many states have also stopped taxing retirement income.

Such tax policies primarily benefit wealthier populations rather than aiding impoverished seniors, as a large percentage of the gains from Illinois's retirement tax breaks go to high-earning households.

Tax reductions that benefit established homeowners oversimplify the issue. Other states have engaged in broader cuts to property taxes, a move generally favoring older, affluent populations over younger families.

One primary catalyst for this tax-cutting trend was the inflation spike following COVID-19, which inflated property valuations and subsequent tax bills.

Yet, these changes reflect the political strength of seniors. While some younger homeowners might see benefits, on the whole, younger Americans gain less and lose more from property tax reductions. Roughly 79% of seniors own homes, compared to only 39% of those under 35.

Future financing from these tax cuts often necessitates increased sales and income taxes or reduced governmental services, leading younger Americans to disproportionately shoulder these burdens.

Certain property tax measures significantly favor longstanding owners over new buyers, as seen with policies in states like Georgia and Alabama.

Social Spending Shifted Towards the Elderly

While state legislators adjust their tax codes for seniors, Congress has simultaneously been tailoring social spending in their favor.

Historically, America's welfare system hasn't prioritized young families. In 2021, the US allocated just 0.6% of its GDP to child and parental benefits.

In stark contrast, similar spending on public pensions highlights a notable imbalance favoring older Americans.

Recent legislative efforts increased benefits for seniors, further skewing financial resources against working-age Americans. The Biden administration inadvertently exacerbated this by rallying support for elder benefits while failing to sustain lasting support initiatives for young families.

Congress expanded benefits for public-sector workers, enabling them to access full Social Security benefits in addition to their pensions, straining the Social Security program.

This action highlights the influence older voters hold, as even Republican supporters have accepted increased senior benefits, despite their usual economic preferences.

Trump's GOP further aligned with social spending favoring seniors during his presidency, introducing new tax benefits for older citizens.

Significant Medicaid cuts are affecting many working-age citizens, while Trump's policies focused cuts in areas that impacted non-retirees, leaving Medicaid's work requirements unchanged for seniors.

Despite socioeconomic challenges arising from these Medicaid cuts, the altered welfare system tilts further toward favoring seniors' needs.

Can America Change Its Trajectory?

Intergeneration economic disputes should not be overblown, as all generations have an interest in maintaining strong Social Security and Medicare systems.

If strategic reforms are enacted, such as revising taxation and lowering exorbitant medical fees, America might sustain generous entitlements alongside bolstered social spending for the young.

Yet, America's current societal framework prioritizes reduced taxes on affluent and older populations while amplifying costs for younger generations, leading to disparate social outcomes.

With an aging electorate's growing influence, America risks perpetuating existing inequities seen globally in older democracies like Italy and Japan.

However, change remains possible.

Though older Americans hold significant electoral weight, the majority of voters will remain under 65 for many years. If younger generations mobilize effectively, they could reshape the political landscape to balance across age divides.

Movements such as YIMBY (Yes in My Backyard), driven by young renters advocating for reasonable housing policy changes, illustrate the potential impact of organized youth initiatives.

With increased participation from younger voters, America could advance towards a more balanced political economy, offering equal opportunity across age groups.