Is America Facing a Roman-Style Decline?

Comparing modern American political dynamics to those of ancient Rome raises important questions about the future of our democracy.

Imagine being a Roman citizen in 200 BCE, convinced that Rome's might would endure forever.

At its zenith, Rome stood as the most illustrious republic, weathering countless invasions and disasters. However, cracks in its foundations appeared by 100 BCE. By 27 BCE, the republic crumbled, giving way to an empire that abandoned representative democracy.

The demise of the Roman Republic reveals a tale both intricate and straightforward: Expansion beyond control, corrupted institutions due to money and private interests, and deepening social divides led citizens to lose faith, leaving them vulnerable to autocratic rule.

Sounds eerily recognizable, doesn't it?

Edward Watts, a historian specializing in Rome, offers critical insights in his books "Mortal Republic: How Rome Fell Into Tyranny" and "The Eternal Decline and Fall of Rome." These works explore how Rome's downfalls mirror current threats to fledgling republics like the U.S. I spoke with Watts on The Gray Area podcast regarding these parallels.

The State of Decline

Reflecting on past predictions, historian Edward Watts now sees more troublesome signs than optimistically noted in 2018. The societal unrest he observed then has intensified, showing unexpected levels of political violence that shook the very foundations of governance.

The Capitol riot on January 6 showcased the vulnerability of our democratic systems, reminiscent of times when Roman institutions drifted, leaving leadership and order in chaos. This situation underscores what's at stake when governance systems are undermined.

Systems in Transition

Both Rome and the current American political system were built on the premise that stability requires gradual change. The caution is that too much stability can lead to an inability to adapt, as was seen in Rome's handling of external pressures and internal corruptions.

Roman adaptability played a crucial role in its resilience. By expanding citizenship and transforming societal roles, the empire tried to keep pace with the needs of its citizens. This lesson of inclusivity and resilience is vital to sustaining robust democracies today.

Lessons from the Past

Edward Watts emphasizes the importance of learning from Rome's adaptability, highlighting how early Romans valued contribution over background. This ethos allowed rising through society based on talent, offering a timeless lesson on leveraging diversity for societal strength.

Remarkably, Roman leaders eventually ceded substantial domestic power to unified imperial leadership, after a long epoch of tension and civil conflict. This period mirrors today’s political uncertainties, with systemic vulnerability exposed by insurrections and abrupt leadership changes.

Examining Current Leadership

One central question discussed is the influence of individual leaders, such as Trump, on systems of governance. Historical precedents in Rome show figures like Sulla and Caesar reshaping the Republic with differing priorities—some preserving a semblance of the Republic, others favoring autocratic control.

Distinctly, Trump’s impact contrasts sharply with Roman autocrats, lacking evident commitment to enduring democratic principles, a crucial difference noted by Watts.

Reflecting on Political Turmoil

Watts advises that political violence must remain absent from democratic systems. Once introduced, it's challenging to remove, often requiring force to eventually restore order—a costly journey both administratively and socially.

More broadly, expectant reliance on a singular leader's capability to resolve systemic issues risks undermining democratic processes. Protecting systems that provide structure and expectations over transient leadership whims is vital for preservation.

Replacing a long-standing system without clear guarantees of stability is an enormous gamble, often with irreversible consequences.