Tehran's Water Scarcity: A Cautionary Tale for Global Cities

The water crisis enveloping Iran's capital is a serious reminder for many metropolises worldwide.

The severe water shortage is intensifying in Tehran, where water rationing affects close to 10 million inhabitants dealing with reduced water pressure from midnight until early morning. This alarming situation is linked to an unprecedented and intense drought—the driest, hottest autumn in almost six decades—with the city having received no rain since September, and no precipitation in sight.

Dependence on Depleting Reservoirs

Tehran is heavily reliant on five primary reservoirs for its water needs. Unfortunately, one reservoir is completely dry, while another is less than 8% full. The head of the Tehran Regional Water Authority reported that the Karaj Dam has approximately two weeks of drinking water remaining. This drought is not limited to the capital; Mashhad, Iran’s second-largest city, has seen its water reserves fall below 3% capacity, endangering 4 million residents.

Should conditions remain unchanged, Tehran might soon face 'Day Zero,' a point at which the city could no longer provide its citizens with potable water and taps run dry. In a previous statement, President Masoud Pezeshkian suggested relocating the capital due to this water crisis.

Equity in the Wake of Drought

While evacuation is unlikely to occur immediately, the crisis does not affect everyone equally. Wealthier residents can buy bottled water or use water tankers—an unaffordable solution for many. Those without these options must depend on charitable help to avoid severe dehydration.

Underlying Causes of the Severity

Tehran’s excessive water use is one part of the problem, but Iran’s water troubles extend beyond this drought. Economic sanctions have isolated the country, hindering access to advanced water technologies. Its adversarial relationships with regional desalination technology leaders—Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—complicate the situation, as desalination involves significant environmental consequences.

Nik Kowser, an expert on water issues, noted that Iran is at the mercy of a 'water mafia,' a powerful group benefiting from extensive projects like dam and deep well constructions that neglect ecological principles, pushing the nation toward water insolvency. Iran’s vulnerability to climate change effects is another factor, with over 82% of the terrain being arid or semi-arid, making it one of the countries most susceptible to natural calamities.

Geopolitical Dimensions of Water Scarcity

The environmental crisis exacerbates geopolitical strains within and beyond Iran’s borders. Water redistribution between regions can incite fears of ethnic groups being denied their share. According to Yale historian Arash Azizi, international sanctions are unlikely to be eased due to this crisis, despite the dire humanitarian consequences.

Urban Survival in a Water-Scant Future

Tehran’s plight is shared with numerous global cities nearing their own Day Zero. São Paulo and Cape Town saw similar threats, mitigated eventually by rainfall, but Tehran’s forecast doesn’t promise that respite. Discussion of evacuating the capital, though unpopular and logistically daunting, highlights the severity.

Looking Beyond Temporary Fixes

Relocating the capital doesn’t address the immediate water deficit. The current reliance on rationing, importation, and hoping for rain fails to confront the underlying issues effectively. Cutting off household supplies lowers usage but doesn’t eradicate demand.

David Michel from the Center for Strategic and International Studies argues for sustainable economic models to maintain and expand urban water systems, suggesting that consumption-based cost models could ease pressure on low-income users.

Cities in arid areas, like those in California and the American Southwest, should heed Tehran’s situation. The notion of entire cities needing evacuation due to water shortages might not remain a distant scenario.