Trump's Influence on US Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends

President Donald Trump's policies are altering the expected pace of US greenhouse gas reductions. Efforts to curb planet-warming emissions are projected to decelerate over the coming decade, posing challenges to national and global climate change mitigation goals.

Previously, the Rhodium Group anticipated a dramatic 56 percent decrease in US greenhouse emissions by 2035 under prior climate strategies. However, with a major policy reversal during the initial months of Trump's tenure, those expectations have been scaled back to a 26-35 percent decrease by 2035 compared to the levels recorded in 2005.

Challenges in Meeting Climate Goals

These revised projections significantly lag behind the aggressive actions required to mitigate global temperature increases. Rising temperatures continue to exacerbate extreme weather events and other climate impacts across the United States. The Trump administration has compounded these challenges by impeding wind and solar energy advancement and dismantling various environmental protections.

In contrast, the previous administration under Joe Biden aimed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by over half this decade, in alignment with the Paris climate accord goals. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 under Biden encouraged reductions through incentives for renewable energy and electrification, projecting a 40 percent drop in emissions by 2030. The Biden-era EPA also tightened emission regulations on power plants and vehicles.

President Trump has charted a different course. His administration, via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, has begun to phase out tax incentives supporting electric vehicles and renewable energy projects. This stance has included direct conflict with wind power initiatives, such as halting an offshore wind project in Rhode Island over supposed national security issues.

Policy Reversals and Their Implications

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under Trump aims to remove regulations governing greenhouse gases. A proposed rule from July suggests invalidating a pivotal 2009 determination that permitted regulatory oversight of these gases under the Clean Air Act. Such a withdrawal could abolish automotive emissions regulations and revert to pre-existing consumer options.

With significant backing from the fossil fuel industry, Trump appointed Chris Wright, a former oil and gas company executive, to lead the Department of Energy. Wright has characterized efforts to attain net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, necessary to avert notable temperature increases by mid-century, as a devastating folly and threat to economic stability. Despite this, the US has managed economic growth with declining greenhouse emissions, which were 17 percent lower in 2022 than in 2005.

Future Prospects and Renewable Energy's Role

The Rhodium Group foresees a range of potential outcomes tied to the implementation of Trump's policies and market dynamics such as fossil fuel prices and clean energy costs. Renewable energy remains financially viable against gas without subsidies, with projects in wind, solar, and storage forming the bulk of incoming US electricity capacity. Growing electricity demands — sparked by data centers, artificial intelligence, and electric vehicle adoption — propel utility companies to bolster capacity.

Although renewables continue to minimize greenhouse emissions, the rate will likely slow as Trump's administration propels policies favoring fossil fuel utilization to satisfy burgeoning electricity needs. Historically, US emissions have decreased annually, averaging 1.1 percent since 2005. However, under a pessimistic forecast, this annual reduction could plunge to just 0.4 percent by 2040.