Understanding the Calm in the Atlantic Hurricane Season

Each year, the Atlantic Ocean typically becomes a theater for formidable hurricanes and tropical storms, especially between June 1 and November 30. Historically, this period reaches its zenith of activity around September 10.

Contrary to expectations, this year has seen a remarkable silence in terms of storm development, leading many to question the absence of hurricanes in the Atlantic.

Influencing Factors: Dust and Pressure Systems

Ordinarily, tropical waves from Africa traverse the Atlantic's warm waters to form cyclones. However, this season, persistent dust from Africa and specific atmospheric pressures have disrupted the conditions necessary for cyclone genesis.

Typically peaking from late June to mid-August, the African dust phenomenon is curtailed this year by high-pressure zones over the North-Central Atlantic, creating a path for dry air.

The ENSO Neutral State

Currently, the climate state known as ENSO Neutral is in effect, meaning there's no dominant El Niño or La Niña. El Niño relaxes equatorial winds, while La Niña strengthens them, influencing hurricane activities distinctly.

With neither present, the usual expectations for hurricane seasons are altered, leading to the current lull.

Future Predictions and Ongoing Season

According to NOAA, despite fewer initial storms, the forecast remains that the Atlantic will display above-average activity. As of September 10, about 60% of the season remains active, with predictions suggesting 13 to 18 named storms, including potentially nine hurricanes and up to five Category 5 events.

To date, six storms have been named, with only one affecting the U.S. coast. This mirrors last year's situation, where six storms had also formed by this point, but three impacted the U.S.

While the statistical peak has passed, history shows significant storms can yet develop, as witnessed last year.