Lebanon Seeks to Decommission Armed Groups, Eyeing Hezbollah Next

The conflict between Israel and Iran-backed militias has left many such groups weakened across the Middle East, including Hezbollah in Lebanon. Seizing this opportunity, the Lebanese government is taking initiatives to extend its control over the country’s non-state armed groups.

Starting in June, Lebanese officials plan to start disarming various Palestinian factions that are currently armed within refugee camps throughout Lebanon. The initiative is part of a broader strategy to ensure all weapons are eventually under the jurisdiction of the national state.

This effort to disarm Palestinian groups serves as a preparatory step for a larger task: the potential disarmament of Hezbollah, a formidable militant organization in Lebanon with substantial backing from Iran.

Mohanad Hage Ali from the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut noted, "This operation is essentially a litmus test. A smooth disarmament process here could potentially accelerate similar efforts with Hezbollah."

Lebanon's government and its military forces have historically been overshadowed in matters of national security by various autonomous armed groups. Among them, Hezbollah is the most powerful, with military capacity that significantly exceeds that of the Lebanese army.

The Palestinian armed factions have situated themselves within Lebanon’s densely populated refugee camps. The Lebanese military traditionally does not venture into these areas, which have become strongholds for these groups.

In light of recent conflicts that have undercut the strength of Iranian-aligned militias, not only in Lebanon but across the region, the new government sees an opening to reinforce its authority and control.