Trump's Unexpected Strategy Towards Israel

President Trump portrays himself as an unwavering ally of Israel while engaging with nations considered its adversaries.

What would be a counterpart to a 'bear hug'?

Such was the term often linked to President Biden's stance on Israel post the October 7, 2023 incidents: outwardly supporting Israel, especially amid conflicts with Iran and allied factions, yet subtly curbing Israeli initiatives in Gaza.

Currently, President Trump embarks on a Middle Eastern tour involving various countries but notably skips Israel. Trump, dismissing claims of a slight, argues his visit is 'beneficial for Israel.'

Trump's approach starkly contrasts his predecessor's: showing minimal intention to intervene or coerce Israel regarding its Gaza engagements, and even less to synchronize on broader regional matters.

Decoding Trump’s Stance

Verbally, the administration remains staunchly 'pro-Israel,' often penalizing its detractors in the US. Yet, in practice, Trump's foreign policy reveals a pronounced indifference to Israeli perspectives.

Nimrod Novik, a former adviser to Israel's late Prime Minister, interpreted Trump's message as an invitation to either collaborate on his regional strategies or not, at Israel's discretion.

Israel’s Unforeseen Trump

Upon Trump's re-election last November, Israeli officials were exuberant. Prime Minister Netanyahu, who often clashed with Biden's policies, lauded Trump's political resurgence and prophesied a renewed strong alliance between the US and Israel.

Netanyahu's optimism was understandable: during Trump's first term, he undertook unprecedented measures supporting Israel, like relocating the US embassy to Jerusalem and affirming Israel's hold over the disputed Golan Heights.

Trump also facilitated the Abraham Accords, easing Israel-Arab state tensions, and canceled Obama's controversial Iran nuclear pact, strongly opposed by Netanyahu's leadership.

Signals early in Trump’s second term suggested continuity in Israel's favor. Appointing Mike Huckabee, a vocal pro-Israel figure, as ambassador, and cracking down on anti-Israel academic protests underscored this.

Regional Divergences

While illustrating unwavering support for Israel, Trump’s broader Middle East policy diverged. Trump engaged directly with Israel's key rivals, excluding Israel from these talks.

In March, it emerged Trump's envoy negotiated with Hamas over American hostages independently of Israel’s involvement, violating a longstanding US policy against direct dialogues with groups classified as terrorists.

This revelation sparked upheaval, resulting in Adam Boehler's removal from the discussions, though eventually, Hamas released the final American detainee, emerging through efforts steered by Trump’s envoy.

Unexpectedly, Trump announced plans for direct conversations with Iran regarding its nuclear pursuits during an Oval Office meeting with Netanyahu.

Israel had lobbied for Iran’s comprehensive nuclear dismantling. However, Trump's administration hinted at potential leniency, favoring a civil nuclear framework akin to the one previously discarded.

Additionally, despite earlier backing for US strikes against the Houthis, Trump ceased the campaign after assurances they would refrain from targeting American vessels.

Strategic Shifts

Trump's administration has notably engaged directly with Israel's major antagonists — Hamas, Iran, and the Houthis — bypassing Israeli input, a tactical rarity noted by seasoned observers of US-Israel relations.

Aaron David Miller, a seasoned Mideast peacemaker, stated no prior administration has pursued such independent outreach in recent times.

Evolving Dynamics in US-Israel Relations

This cooling of ties may partly stem from Trump's growing impatience with Netanyahu. Trump often perceives allies extracting more from the US than reciprocating.

In an Oval Office discussion, Trump dismissed tariff relief for Israel, reminding of the billions in annual aid it receives from the US.

Trump's detractors occasionally laud his tactics with Israel, contrasting Biden’s methods, and noting Trump's firmer handling of Netanyahu.

The rise of the 'restrainer' faction within Republican foreign policy, advocating reduced US military involvement, particularly in the Middle East, may influence this shift.

New Alliances and Priorities

Not all within Trump’s circle are critical of Israel, yet there’s a shifting sentiment questioning the alignment of US-Israeli objectives.

Vice President JD Vance articulated Israel’s defensive rights but cautioned against US entanglement in potential conflicts with Iran.

Trump’s recent speech in Saudi Arabia critiqued certain policy-makers and indicated a preference for restraint over aggression.

Trump's tour now emphasizes the Gulf region, focusing on arms and technology commerce rather than traditional stops in Egypt or Jordan.

During his initial term, the alignment between US, Saudis, and Emiratis centered on regional security threats from Iran. Yet present circumstances reflect a détente with Iran, shifting regional balances.

The Gulf states now display increased frustration over Israel's Gaza operations and the ensuing regional unrest.

Environmental and economic stability remain primary for leaders like MBS and MBZ, who advise caution over the Gaza conflict’s regional spillover.

A Hands-off Approach to Gaza

While Trump's current strategy presents a notable departure, it doesn’t herald a complete transformation against Biden-style support for Israel.

Israel considers intensifying its Gaza operations, yet Trump maintains a ‘hands-off’ diplomatic stance, offering Netanyahu tacit freedom.

The likelihood of Trump pressuring Israel into policy changes appears slim, mirroring Biden’s earlier approach.

Despite his history of rapid policy reversals, Trump's present detached posture seemingly lacks the impetus to resolve ongoing Gaza issues.