Consumer Sentiment Plummets to 2011 Levels Due to Tariff Concerns, Reveals Conference Board Survey

In the month of April, consumer confidence regarding both current and forthcoming economic conditions took a hit, mainly due to the impact of tariffs affecting general sentiment. Similarly, confidence in job markets reverted to levels reminiscent of those during the global financial crisis.

The Conference Board's index saw a decline to 86, slipping by 7.9 points from its previous value, falling short of the Dow Jones prediction of 87.7.

Perceptions about the longer-term scenario deteriorated even further.

The expectations index, which assesses respondent anticipation for the coming six months, dropped to 54.4, a drop of 12.5 points, marking the lowest since October 2011. According to board officials, this indication aligns with recession conditions.

"Substantial downturns were observed across the three key components—future business conditions, job opportunities, and anticipated income—highlighting a widespread gloom about what's to come," stated Stephanie Guichard, the board's senior economist in global indicators.

Guichard also noted that the confidence levels overall resemble those witnessed at the beginning of the Covid pandemic.

Interestingly, the proportion of people predicting a downturn in employment over the upcoming half year has surged to 32.1%, nearly reaching the highs seen in April 2009 amid the Great Recession, which spanned from December 2007 to June 2009. The percentage labeling jobs as 'hard to get' rose to 16.6%, a slight increase from March, while those considering jobs as 'plentiful' dropped to 31.7% from 33.6%.

Projections for income over the long term have soured for the first time in five years.

The gloomy outlook extended to the stock market, with 48.5% anticipating a decline in stock values over the next year, the bleakest sentiment since October 2011. Expectations for inflation have also risen sharply, reaching 7% for the forthcoming year, the highest rate since November 2022.

The driving force behind this pessimism is the mounting anxiety over tariffs, which have reached an unprecedented peak in the survey's history. There has also been a notable rise in the anticipation of a recession, marking a two-year high.

Coinciding with this, the Bureau of Labor Statistics documented a reduction in job listings for March, registering the lowest count since September 2024. The recorded vacancies stood at 7.19 million, down from the 7.48 million in February and below the Wall Street forecast of 7.5 million.

Government job listings decreased by 59,000, correlating with President Donald Trump's endeavor to scale down the federal workforce. Additionally, the sectors of transportation, warehousing, and utilities also witnessed a contraction of 59,000 positions.

The JOLTS report indicated that hiring numbers saw little movement; however, layoffs had decreased by 222,000.