Is It Worth Highlighting Musk's Delayed FSD Milestones Again?

Elon Musk anticipated a breakthrough for Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, projecting it would operate independently by year-end. But, what unfolded?

Musk had envisioned a scenario where Tesla's autonomous driving technology would require zero human intervention. However, the current reality tells a different story.

The Gap Between Expectation and Reality

Tesla did tantalize its detractors by announcing a driverless taxi service, supposedly ready to reach half of the United States by year-end. This was the claim Musk made, setting sights on the end of 2025. The truth, naturally, was far less dramatic.

In present-day operations across Austin and San Francisco, Tesla's 'robotaxi' service is not open to everyone. An employee still occupies either the driver's seat or the front passenger seat, with the authority to stop the vehicle if necessary. These trials remain limited, and such services don't span 50 percent of the American populace.

Revisiting Musk’s Self-Driving Promises

Once more, Musk's forecasts for self-driving technology have fallen short. Today, with heightened aspirations, a new objective has surfaced. Now, Musk posits that 10 billion miles of data collection are necessary to secure 'safe, unsupervised self-driving.'

For years, Musk has proclaimed an 'unsupervised' version of Tesla's FSD, suggesting drivers could engage in activities like using their phones while behind the wheel. Currently, FSD is a Level 2 system, which demands driver attentiveness and readiness to take control when needed. This falls short of true autonomy.

The Reality of 2026: Supervised Driving Persists

As we step into 2026, Tesla's FSD remains a monitored system. With Musk's latest requirement of 10 billion miles still unmet, the journey continues. At present, Tesla has logged over 7 billion miles according to their FSD dashboard. This raises the question: Why promise unsupervised status by the previous year when the milestone was unattainable?

The answer lies in shifting goals. Back in 2016, Musk had predicted a need for 6 billion miles before regulators allow true self-driving. Interestingly, no regulatory barriers prevent launching a fully autonomous service. Waymo has secured requisite regulatory approvals.

Legal Considerations and Liabilities

It seems Tesla’s legal advisors are cautious. As long as drivers are accountable, Tesla can navigate occasional litigations. Unlike Waymo, Tesla does not assume responsibility for its vehicle actions as they aren't truly self-driving. The company contests liability in court when Tesla owners challenge them.

However, once these systems become fully autonomous, the implications of liability could shift dramatically.