Uncertain Outcomes for Ukraine Discussions in Paris amid U.S. Focus on Venezuela

Key discussions are scheduled in Paris on Tuesday involving Ukraine's allies, potentially shaping the nation's security following a possible ceasefire with Russia. However, the likelihood of significant progress appears tenuous as U.S. attention shifts towards the situation in Venezuela.

Shift in U.S. Attention

Initially optimistic about the summit, French President Emmanuel Macron anticipated decisive actions from the coalition of supportive nations. These nations have been considering measures to prevent further Russian aggression if hostilities with Ukraine cease. The U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has, however, created a diversion in focus.

Macron, in a late-December address, mentioned that the summit would yield "concrete commitments" to protect Ukraine and secure a fair and enduring peace. The Paris meeting promises a significant gathering of leaders, numbering 35, including 27 heads of state and government. Representing the U.S. will be Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, due to a last-minute change replacing Secretary of State Marco Rubio, prompted by U.S. involvement in Venezuela.

Key Priorities and Challenges

The summit aims to address the challenge of monitoring a ceasefire and bolstering Ukraine's defense capabilities. Discussions will also consider deploying a multinational force across land, sea, and air, planning responses to potential future Russian threats, and establishing long-term military collaborations with Ukraine. Nevertheless, the shift in U.S. focus creates uncertainty about achieving these objectives.

Ukrainian officials demand strong assurances of military and other support from the United States, fearing that any ceasefire might merely afford Russia an opportunity to regroup before renewing aggression.

Developments in Negotiations

Before the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, some developments were observed in discussions centered around Ukraine's security. Steve Witkoff had commented on constructive dialogues among representatives from the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, and Ukraine, focusing on enhancing security guarantees and establishing effective mechanisms to deescalate tensions.

France, aligning with the United Kingdom, has spearheaded efforts to secure a ceasefire. Macron articulated that Europe’s role might include deploying forces away from Ukraine's conflict zones to mitigate potential Russian threats.

Remaining Obstacles

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine emphasized ongoing challenges, indicating that specific nations had not finalized troop contributions due to domestic parliamentary approvals required. He noted that support could manifest in various other forms, such as through military technology or intelligence.

Zelenskyy further advocated for post-ceasefire involvement from countries like Britain and France, known for their military capabilities and nuclear arsenals, while acknowledging the diverse forms of aid—from sanctions to financial or humanitarian assistance—offered by other coalition nations.

In his candid remarks, Zelenskyy underscored the coalition's existence hinging on the commitment of its members. Without their readiness to engage more actively, the coalition's foundation remains questionable.