CIA Warns Trump on Venezuela's Political Dilemma

A top-secret analysis by the CIA, crafted for the White House, cautioned President Trump against backing Venezuela's democratic opposition for fear of escalating tensions into a broader conflict. This insight was shared with The Times by an insider familiar with the document.

This assessment, a highly restricted CIA document, was crafted upon the directive of senior policy authorities as Trump deliberated over whether to greenlight Operation Absolute Resolve. This audacious U.S. mission saw the extraction of Maduro and his spouse from their Caracas residence over the weekend.

In a startling move after the operation, Trump swiftly dismissed the democratic opposition leadership, which included last year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner and a popular opposition candidate whose electoral victory in 2024 was reportedly overturned by Maduro.

Trump instead aligned his administration with Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s chosen vice president, who was subsequently declared the interim president. The rest of the Maduro administration remains intact.

Risks of Military Interference

U.S. backing for the Venezuelan opposition might have demanded military intervention given that the country's military forces remained loyal to Maduro, unwilling to cede control.

Trump’s recent declaration to take over Venezuela's oil resources resulted in a notable rise in stock prices of prominent U.S. energy firms.

Avoiding Past Mistakes

A senior official stated that the administration was keen to avoid errors of past conflicts, notably the Iraq invasion, where removing Saddam Hussein's supporters created a backlash, with armed resistance emerging against the U.S. efforts.

The CIA's report was not broadly shared within the U.S. intelligence community, which is comprised of 18 agencies. The head of this community, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, notably did not play a central role in the discussions.

Collaboration with Allies

The core team involved with the operation, including prominent figures such as Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, regularly convened over several months to plan the mission.

Emerging evidence suggests Trump's aides may have communicated with Rodríguez prior to executing the operation, although Trump has denied advising Rodríguez beforehand of Maduro’s deposition.

Diplomatic Complexities and New Leadership

Evan Ellis, who worked on Latin American strategies during Trump’s first term, noted a potential strategic intent behind the decision, implying collaboration may have been seen as beneficial.

Rodríguez's induction as interim president occurred with the presence of diplomats from major nations including Russia, China, and Iran. She has issued somewhat conflicting statements, opposing U.S. imperialism yet implying openness for new collaboratives with Washington.

Ellis suggests political motives prevent Rodríguez from overtly admitting any compromise or cessation of the revolutionary agenda.

Opposition Response and Future Prospects

In a recent interview, opposition leader Machado, while yet to converse with Trump post-operation, indicated a willingness to confer with him soon. She commended his historic actions and proposed gifting a share of her Nobel Peace Prize to him in appreciation.

Machado described these developments as significant strides towards paving a path to democracy in Venezuela.