Hurricane Erin: Update on the First Atlantic Storm

Hurricane Erin has diminished in strength to a Category 3 system but it retains significant power as a major hurricane.

Erin's wind speeds reached 125 mph according to a 5 a.m. Eastern Time bulletin from the National Hurricane Center. A follow-up report is anticipated at 8 a.m. ET.

The current subsiding of Erin is deemed temporary. It is predicted to regain intensity following a standard eyewall replacement process. Typically, such cycles slightly diminish a hurricane's potency, but intensification often recurs afterward.

The most recent positioning places Erin roughly 140 miles to the north of San Juan, and approximately 330 miles east-southeast of Grand Turk Island. Its trajectory is a west-northwest course at a speed of 14 mph.

Outer bands from Erin continue to generate heavy precipitation and strong winds in regions such as Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Weather Alerts and Impact

The U.S. Virgin Islands are under significant flash flood warnings. Radar data estimates that 3 to 6 inches of rain have drenched areas like St. John and St. Thomas, while northern Puerto Rico has seen 2 to 4 inches.

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands will remain under flood watches until Monday morning. Isolated areas might accumulate up to 8 inches due to Erin's passing bands, potentially resulting in rapid flooding, landslides, or mudslides.

As Erin advances west-southwest on Sunday, it will persist in delivering rain and 40-50 mph gusts to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Conditions should ease later today for the Virgin Islands and by tonight for Puerto Rico.

For the Turks and Caicos Islands, tropical storm warnings have been issued due to potential heavy rainfall and gusty winds from Erin's proximity. Meanwhile, the southeastern Bahamas are observing tropical storm watches.

Forecast and Pathway

Erin is projected to decelerate and begin turning northward in the coming days. The expected course for Erin remains unchanged since previous forecasts, driven by consistent steering patterns.

Meteorological models forecast Erin's path to navigate between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast, suggesting minimal direct impacts on the U.S. mainland.

However, hazardous surf and rip currents are anticipated along the eastern U.S. coastline, stretching from Florida's Space Coast to the New England region. These are consequences of Erin's increasing magnitude as it heads north.

Significant wave activity is expected, particularly from the Carolinas possibly reaching the Northeast by Thursday, with wave heights potentially exceeding 8 to 12 feet along Carolina beaches. Such conditions may not only result in dangerous surf but could also erode beaches, endangering coastal properties.